Tianjin Teda 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 64% and Wuhan Three Towns 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 49% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.865 / defence 1.016 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.981 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.340. Data: 53 Tianjin Teda games / 53 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.865 / def 1.016 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.981 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 16 August 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 40% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.86x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.98x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.86
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.34 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 19W 21D 13L from 53 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 18L across 53 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.45 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 8W 15D 3L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 11W 7D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.49 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 21D 13L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 14D 18L in their last 53 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.50 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Tianjin Teda, 81% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 65% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Tianjin Teda's games and 81% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 65% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 49%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.