Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 June 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 7D 0L at TEDA Football Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.95 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.696 / defence 0.911 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.835 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.406. Tianjin Teda's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Tianjin Teda games / 16 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 32% | Sichuan Jiuniu 37%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 32% | Sichuan Jiuniu 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.95 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.696 / def 0.911 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.835 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 31% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Tianjin Teda home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
31%
3.25
32%
3.11
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.07 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.95 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.70 / defence 0.91 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 32% | Sichuan Jiuniu 37%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.