Tianjin Teda 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to TEDA Football Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 64% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.938 / defence 0.948 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.755 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Tianjin Teda games / 58 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 68% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 68% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Jonoon 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Tianjin Teda 2.31 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.938 / def 0.948 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.755 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Qingdao Jonoon xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 68% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.76x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.29
13%
7.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.23
0.92
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
7.63
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
1%
76.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.92 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 22W 21D 15L from 58 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 32L across 58 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 11W 15D 3L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 6D 21L across 29 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 21D 15L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 12D 32L in their last 58 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.66 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 59%, Qingdao Jonoon 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Tianjin Teda) and 38% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 34% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 68% | Draw 19% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.