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Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.76 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 28% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights