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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.

Dalian Zhixing (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Tianjin Teda, 1.60 for Dalian Zhixing — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Tianjin Teda 0W, Dalian Zhixing 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 60% versus Dalian Zhixing 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 60% | Dalian Zhixing 25%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.43 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.776 / defence 0.777 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.792 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.376. Tianjin Teda's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Tianjin Teda games / 20 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Dalian Zhixing 4.76. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Dalian Zhixing 56%.

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