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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights