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Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.81 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 53% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 23%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Wuhan Three Towns 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights