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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.55 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.18 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.45 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, SHANGHAI SIPG 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights