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Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shanghai Shenhua 3-1 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.06 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.15 / defence 0.66, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 21% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Shanghai Shenhua 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights