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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Changchun Yatai 3-1 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.68 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.44 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 42%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Changchun Yatai 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights