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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.98 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.81 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights