Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 3D 5L at Cangzhou Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour SHANGHAI SIPG, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J..
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–4 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
It is worth noting that SHANGHAI SIPG have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% and SHANGHAI SIPG 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.19 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.716 / defence 1.059 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.463 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 58 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.19 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.716 / def 1.059 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.463 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
2.00
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 22% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
22%
4.59
23%
4.44
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.19
2.00
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
3%
33.86
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2.00 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 15W 15D 28L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 42W 9D 7L across 58 games — 2.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 21W 4D 4L across 29 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.60 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 42W 9D 7L in their last 58 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.28 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%, SHANGHAI SIPG 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 66% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 55%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 45% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 66% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.19 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.46 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 56%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.