Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Cangzhou Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.949 / defence 0.802 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.900 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.343. Data: 35 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 5 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.949 / def 0.802 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.900 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Qingdao Youth Island xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.95x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.90x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.55
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.27
0.97
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.97 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 2 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Youth Island?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Qingdao Youth Island 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Qingdao Youth Island 3-2 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.