Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 49%, yet in-form Henan Jianye provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Henan Jianye travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cangzhou Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Henan Jianye, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J..
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–6 with Henan Jianye winning.
It is worth noting that Henan Jianye have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 xG and Henan Jianye 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.052 / defence 0.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.943 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.358. Data: 37 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 37 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 26%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 3.85. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Henan Jianye 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 / Henan Jianye 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.052 / def 0.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.943 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Henan Jianye xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 49% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 4W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 1.05x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.02
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.84
1.17
Henan Jianye xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.17 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 18W 18D 27L from 63 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 21L across 63 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.14 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 12D 12L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 9W 9D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Henan Jianye 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 44% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 31%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games; Henan Jianye in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 47% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 44% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-3 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.67 xG and Henan Jianye 1.17 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Henan Jianye attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 26%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.14 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.