Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.35 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.815 / defence 1.165 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.382. Data: 33 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 0 Qingdao Jonoon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 36%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Jonoon 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.35 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.815 / def 1.165 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Qingdao Jonoon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.85x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.46
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.37
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.37 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2023, when Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.35 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.37 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 36%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.