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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Yunnan Yukun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Yunnan Yukun 4-2 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.62 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.08 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.13 / defence 0.98 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 69% | Draw 18% | Yunnan Yukun 12%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 78%, Yunnan Yukun 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights