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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Wuhan Three Towns 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-2 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.77 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 72% | Draw 17% | Wuhan Three Towns 11%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights