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SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.26 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, Tianjin Teda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights