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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.82 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 45% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 29%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights