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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.66 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG, a combined 4.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.44 / defence 1.37, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 29%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights