SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Qingdao Youth Island at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 4.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 5–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 58% versus Qingdao Youth Island 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Qingdao Youth Island 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 3.44 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.762 / defence 0.864 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.914 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.335. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.762 — their λ of 3.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 26 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 82% | Draw 11% | Qingdao Youth Island 8%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.22 | Draw 9.09 | Qingdao Youth Island 12.50. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (82%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.44 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 82% | Draw 11% | Qingdao Youth Island 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 63% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 3.44 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.762 / def 0.864 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.914 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.44
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Qingdao Youth Island xG
63%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 82% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 8% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.76x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.44. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.6%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
82%
1.22
11%
9.33
8%
13.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.6%
Home win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.44
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.49
1.05
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.22
82%
Home win
9.33
11%
Draw
13.28
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
3%
31.19
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 3.44 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.05 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 4.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 26 games, going 22W 3D 1L for 2.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 11W 1D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 3.35 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 22W 3D 1L in their last 26 games (2.65 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.83 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.08 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 75%, Qingdao Youth Island at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 67% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 58% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Qingdao Youth Island 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 3.44 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.05 xG, a combined 4.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.76 / defence 0.86 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 82% | Draw 11% | Qingdao Youth Island 8%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 73%, Qingdao Youth Island 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 4.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.