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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Zhixing to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Pudong Football Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.034 / defence 0.966 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.756 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.348. Data: 44 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 14 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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