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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.92 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.02 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 75% | Draw 15% | Dalian Zhixing 10%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 70%, Dalian Zhixing 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights