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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Changchun Yatai 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.36 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.14 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 64% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 17%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights