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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 32%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 2.15 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights