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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun finished level at 1-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 3.38 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.04 xG, a combined 4.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.37 / defence 0.86 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 81% | Draw 11% | Yunnan Yukun 7%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 76%, Yunnan Yukun 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights