Shandong Luneng 1-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Shandong Luneng welcome Yunnan Yukun to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shandong Luneng have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 68% and Yunnan Yukun 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 76% | Yunnan Yukun 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 3.38 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.369 / defence 0.863 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.879 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.871 / away 1.367. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 3.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Shandong Luneng games / 25 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 81% | Draw 11% | Yunnan Yukun 7%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | Yunnan Yukun 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.38 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Yunnan Yukun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 81% | Draw 11% | Yunnan Yukun 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 63% | xG Shandong Luneng 3.38 / Yunnan Yukun 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.369 / def 0.863 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.879 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.871 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.38
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Yunnan Yukun xG
63%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 81% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 0W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.38. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
81%
1.23
11%
8.70
7%
13.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.38
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
4.41
1.04
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.70
11%
Draw
13.50
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
3%
29.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 3.38 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.04 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 4.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 6D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.52 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.17 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Yunnan Yukun won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 4-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 50%, Yunnan Yukun 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Shandong Luneng and 67% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shandong Luneng's games and 75% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 67% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun finished level at 1-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 3.38 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.04 xG, a combined 4.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.37 / defence 0.86 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 81% | Draw 11% | Yunnan Yukun 7%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 76%, Yunnan Yukun 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.