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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.64 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 25%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights