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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights