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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SHANGHAI SIPG.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.37 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.55 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Shandong Luneng winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights