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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Qingdao Youth Island 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Youth Island 3-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.78 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 55% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights