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Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights