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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shandong Luneng.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Shandong Luneng 0-3 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.56 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.15 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 45% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 26%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights