Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 14 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.91 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.995 / defence 1.087 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.924 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.406. Data: 42 Qingdao Youth Island games / 13 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 49% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Yunnan Yukun 3.57. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 49% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.91 / Yunnan Yukun 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.995 / def 1.087 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.924 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Yunnan Yukun xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 0 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 49% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Qingdao Youth Island home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.99x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (0.92x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 42/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.24
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.32
1.41
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.41 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun?
From 3 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Qingdao Youth Island's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 14, as Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.91 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.41 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 49% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 28%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.