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Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.79 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 47% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights