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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda finished level at 2-2 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Tianjin Teda 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights