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Stalemate at Qingdao Youth Island's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu finished level at 0-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.46 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.61 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 69% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 13%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights