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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-2 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.04 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.53 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.05 / defence 0.75, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 48%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Shanghai Shenhua 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights