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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-5 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.06 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 2.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Shandong Luneng 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights