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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.57 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 51% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 24%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Qingdao Jonoon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights