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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Meizhou Kejia 3-1 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.84 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 40% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 35%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights