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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.31 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 56%, Henan Jianye 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights