Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Qingdao Youth Island's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 64% and Beijing Guoan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 54% | Beijing Guoan 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.851 / defence 1.295 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.856 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.314. Data: 22 Qingdao Youth Island games / 52 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 / Beijing Guoan 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.851 / def 1.295 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.856 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.85) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.91
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.88
1.46
Beijing Guoan xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.46 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 12W 4D 6L from 22 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Youth Island.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.82 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 4D 6L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 0.91 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 54%, Beijing Guoan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 36% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 36%; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 54% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 36% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.46 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 54%, Beijing Guoan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.