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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 2.10 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.20 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 58% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 41%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.86 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights