Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Jonoon 1.30 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 39% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Sichuan Jiuniu 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.95 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.928 / defence 1.290 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.765 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.338. Data: 53 Qingdao Jonoon games / 23 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.00. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.95 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.928 / def 1.290 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.765 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 52% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.39
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.27
1.32
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
4%
27.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.32 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 11L across 23 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.96 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 4W 2D 5L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.96 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.27 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 54%, Sichuan Jiuniu 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 46% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 36% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 54% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.95 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Sichuan Jiuniu 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.