🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-4 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.62 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.45 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 39%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights