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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.73 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.57 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.26 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 34%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 38%, Shandong Luneng 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights