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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.65 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.26 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 40%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.97 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights