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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 38%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights