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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 22%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 38%, Henan Jianye 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights